Wake UP!: Place Your Bets, Folks! Which State Will Be Next to Jump on the Same Sex Marriage Bandwagon?
I know, I know…it’s about time. I do hate that I’ve been remiss for so long, but rest assured I have plenty of excuses to give. Trust me, Bambi Weavil, my editor, has heard all of them! (Don’t worry, I’ll spare you. Let’s just say two career changes, a move, and some family illnesses later, here I am!)
I’ve missed out on a lot of news stories I’ve desperately wanted to comment on…so I will be doing some unapologetic backtracking. But don’t worry my dear friends, I’m back for good.
First and Foremost, YAY GAYS!
Since I last wrote, Maine, Iowa and Vermont have joined Connecticut and Massachusetts in extending equality to gays by allowing them to legally marry. Who would have thought that places like Iowa and Maine, which are much more “purple” than “blue,” would turn out to be more cosmopolitan on equality than liberal havens like New York and California?
Thanks to the consistent judicial decisions made in Iowa, Connecticut and Massachusetts, I think we can safely assume that California’s Supreme Court will follow suit. However, I’m much less interested in judicial decisions than I am in the legislation passed by Vermont and Maine. THAT is the real story here.
Judicial Decisions are Nice…but Legislation is Better
Thanks to the unequivocal wording in the Constitution, I’m not surprised to see judicial decisions made in favor of gay marriage. I don’t want to minimize the impact of those decisions in the grand scheme of things; however, those types of decisions don’t signify a radical change in momentum for gay equality. The Vermont decision, on the other hand, marks the first time in America that gay rights to marry have been granted through legislation…and even more significant was the fact that there was enough support in the legislature to override Governor Jim Douglas’ veto. Overriding a veto is no small feat: 23 Senators and 100 Representatives voted to override his veto, while only 5 Senators and 49 Representatives voted against it. That level of support for such a contentious issue has been hard to find in any state, and is a clear indicator of the changing tide in support for gay marriage.
Maine’s decision wasn’t quite as dramatic, but it did include an interesting and encouraging cherry on top of the equality sundae: Governor John Baldacci, a gay marriage opponent, signed the bill into law, stating that “It’s not the way I was raised and it’s not the way that I am. But at the same time I have a responsibility to uphold the Constitution. That’s my job, and you can’t allow discrimination to stand when it’s raised to your level.” (New York Times Article)
Equality through legislation is a significantly more difficult process than judicial review. Instead of having to convince a handful of judges who are primarily beholden to the Constitution, you have to convince hundreds of people who are primarily beholden to their public. They have to be convinced to vote for a dramatic change in public policy on an issue that leaves the public sharply divided (and even more significant is the fact that gay marriage is one of those few issues which successfully crosses party lines.)
And then, after dozens of committee meetings, amendments, arguments, and votes, you have to convince a governor that it is in his political best interest to sign a controversial bill into law. (I hope none of you are under the misguided impression that the will of the people is paramount in legislative decisions…9 times out of 10, legislators make decisions that they believe will be more likely to further their political career. Don’t believe me? Check out Arlen Specter’s decision to go Dem…because polls suggested he had no chance of retaining his seat otherwise.)
The Vermont and Maine legislation signifies important and positive changes in regard to Gay Marriage:
1. Thanks to a slew of consistent judicial rulings, legislators and governors alike are beginning to realize that gay marriage really IS an equality issue, not a morality issue. They are beginning to realize that in the US of A, thanks to religious freedom granted to us by the First Amendment, the Constitution is more important than the religious beliefs of some denominations with regard to state and federal law.
2. Because of the fact that a large majority of legislators, as well as Maine’s Governor, made the decision to support gay marriage, it’s safe to say that the writing is on the wall: These politicians believe that gay marriage is going to be legal, and one day people will look back and judge the opposition to gay equality in much the same way we now look at supporters of segregation.
3. The climate has now been created to allow formerly staunch opponents, specifically those who support “civil unions” but not “marriages,” to change their minds with less political repercussions than they would have dealt with in the past. They can say, as Baldacci did, that they don’t personally believe in it, but they have to make their decisions based on the Constitution. In other words, they can avoid angering their conservative supporters by claiming they have personal reservations without totally alienating their liberal supporters, since they did, after all, vote for it/sign it into law.
WWMJSD? (What Will Misguided Jesus Supporters Do?)
I don’t want to minimize the impact of judicial decisions on the gay rights movement. That having been said, judicial decisions don’t indicate a significant change in the momentum for gay marriage. True, every victory puts more wind in the sails of equality…but there is one huge drawback: Opponents will label these decisions as just another example of activist judges spitting in the face of public opinion.
However, there is one important trend I expect to see thanks to the decisions made by Supreme Courts in Connecticut, Iowa, and Massachusetts: Opponents are getting ready to have all of their previous “victories” rubbed in their faces.
Why? Because of case law! When I worked with the ACLU, I learned firsthand why they’re so picky about which cases they choose. If a case is brought to the courts by the ACLU, and the courts do not find in their favor, then it creates case law which does the EXACT OPPOSITE of what they intended. In the case of same sex marriage, opponents have created opportunities for legal challenges by passing legislation against same sex marriage in nearly every state, and recent history has proven that their law or amendment has an excellent chance of being found unconstitutional. Unlike many other contentious issues, there is no way to rephrase it to make it constitutional. If a court finds that defining marriage between one man and one woman fails the equal protection clause, then there’s no way to call it something else to get around it. They have no recourse; the issue is effectively dead in their state.
The much smarter course for equality opponents to have taken would have been to drop the “Defense of Marriage” strategy and focus their attentions on preventing legislation which would allow gay marriage from succeeding. That way, they would have preserved the status quo and minimized their chances of becoming the next Iowa. The funny thing is that so many states got caught up in the super-religious-conservative stance of the past administration that they went ahead and got their biased laws and/or amendments passed in every state except New Mexico, which is the only US state which has no same sex marriage laws on the books at all. Expect the tide to keep rolling through the country now that the precedent has been set and upheld.
Predictions for Future Gay Marriage Decisions
There’s a lot of speculation as to which state will be next to jump on the equality bandwagon. Here are my predictions:
New Hampshire Odds: 2 to 1
This is my number one pick to be the next state to jump on the marriage equality bandwagon. The bill has passed both the House and the Senate, and is currently on the desk of Governor John Lynch’s desk. Lynch has previously said he’s supportive of civil unions but not same sex marriage, but we’ve heard that song and dance before (Maine Governor Baldacci, anyone?). My guess is that Gov. Lynch will probably cave in and sign the bill after much hemming and hawing…he’ll try and cover his ass politically both ways by acting as though it was a difficult decision. But if he goes by the polling, which shows a plurality of support for same sex marriage, then he’ll sign it. He has a very short period of time to decide…but I guarantee you he’ll wait until the LAST possible minute (Tuesday, May 12th) and then he’ll sign it into law.
New Jersey Odds: 3 to 1
Governor Jon Corzine supports it. The Democrats in the legislature support it. Hell, even a majority of the public supports it. So why do I have odds set at 3 to 1? Because it’s an election year for the entire Assembly AND the Governor. If you know anything about politics, you know that politicians shy away from divisive issues during election years, because they want to hold on to as many votes as possible. Because this issue is quite literally a deal breaker for a lot of religious voters, they will try and wait until after the election dust has settled. However, depending on how the economy is doing next year, the balance could possibly shift a little more to the red side, and there’s a lot of speculation that Corzine may be unseated by republican challenger Chris Christie. Most gay advocates feel that if it’s going to happen, it is got to happen now. My prediction? If New Hampshire goes gay, and especially if New York goes gay, New Jersey will as well. If not, then cross your fingers for next year.
New York Odds: 5 to 1
Governor Patterson has introduced legislation to legalize same sex marriage, and a majority of the population supports it. However, most recognize that his efforts to push this legislation are politically motivated, and Democrats only have a paper thin majority. In addition, several Democrats have said they will not support gay marriage. Chances are, there’s not enough support in the legislature to push the bill through. I give odds of 5 to 1 because I suspect it won’t make it to Gov. Patterson’s desk. My guess is that the legislature will make a pact to get it as close to passage as possible…that way it keeps the issue alive, covers some political asses, but nobody has to risk the political fallout of switching sides on such a divisive issue.
Washington, DC Odds: 5 to 1
DC, while not a state, is an entity all to itself. This past week, the City Council voted 12-1 (with crackhead and philanderer Marion Barry as the only dissenter) to recognize gay marriages from other states or countries. The next step, according to gay activists in DC, is to use this as the foundation for a push to legalize gay marriage. But first, Congress has to review the bill, since DC is not under the authority of any state. They can either uphold the law, overturn the law, OR they can do nothing. If they do nothing, after thirty (30) days the law gets to stay on the books. My prediction? We all know Congress’s predilection for doing nothing, so I suspect that’s what they’ll do. They’ve got a lot on their plates, and they’re answering to a lot of crap from their constituencies as it is. Republicans will make a big show of forcing the issue, and Democrats will quietly allow the bill to stand. That way, everybody wins: Republicans earn brownie points with their base by showing how dedicated they are to “morality,” and the more conservative Democrats won’t have to answer to their base by voting to overturn the law.
Rhode Island Odds: 20 to 1
There’s some chatter that Rhode Island has a chance to pass gay marriage legislation. For one, the legislature has a humongous Democratic majority, and there’s a huge push by advocates for gay marriage going on in the state. However, the majority isn’t all that it seems…a lot of the Dems are actually on the socially conservative side. More discouraging is Governor Donald Carcieri’s recent turn to the dark side…he and his wife joined the National Organization for Marriage last month. They’re the ones with the “gathering storm” commercial and the empty-headed, fake-boobied beauty queen Carrie Prejean on their side. My prediction? Rhode Island isn’t jumping on the gay equality bandwagon anytime soon.
So place your bets, folks, and be sure to weigh in by commenting. Think I’m right on the money? Then let me know. Think I’m a total idiot? Well, hell, tell me so. Get on record with your opinion so you can show off to your friends later when you’re right…or weep bitterly when you’re wrong. Time’s a-wastin’…New Hampshire’s decision is coming early next week!
Until next time, don’t forget that stupidity is often inherited, so be gentle with the poor ultra-conservative souls who, thanks to their narrow-minded upbringing, never had a chance.
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About Chardon Moore:
Chardon Moore is a political junkie, LGBT ally, and the webmistress of LiberalMartyr.com. She’s been a human and civil rights activist for over a decade, as well as working in broadcast media, academia, and state government.
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